Codere Online has reported a 31% increase in third-quarter revenue while keeping its full-year forecast unchanged, as a World Cup boost and strong Mexican performance meet a more demanding outlook for the closing months of 2026.
The Nasdaq-listed operator’s preliminary, unaudited results, published on 12 November, put revenue at €62.6 million for the three months to 30 September. Adjusted EBITDA increased 45% to €4.2 million.
Chief executive Aviv Sher and chief financial officer Marcus Arildsson have nevertheless retained guidance of €255–265 million in Gaming Win and €20–25 million in adjusted EBITDA for the year. Gaming Win is the company’s newly named operating measure, separate from revenue under International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS.
The tension is worth examining. Codere Online is producing substantial growth, yet the customer figures, earnings adjustments and regulatory outlook all complicate a straightforward expansion story.
| Q3 measure | 2025 | 2026 | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| IFRS revenue | €47.7m | €62.6m | +31% |
| Gaming Win | €51.6m | €67.1m | +30% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | €2.9m | €4.2m | +45% |
| Mexico revenue | €24.0m | €32.9m | +37% |
| Mexico average monthly active players | 88,300 | 85,600 | −3% |
From an expansion pitch to an earnings test
Codere Online began in 2014 within Codere Group. Its emergence as a separately listed business followed the completion of its combination with DD3 Acquisition Corp. II in November 2021.
That transaction brought approximately $116 million in gross proceeds, with the company planning to use much of the funding for marketing across Latin America, alongside technology investment. The proposition centred on taking an established gambling brand into expanding online markets.
Its subsequent financial history shows how that proposition has developed. The audited 2024 accounts recorded operating income of €4.3 million, following an operating loss of €14.8 million in 2023. Those accounts also described a shift towards profitability and more efficient marketing.
That history changes the question investors should ask today. Winning customers established the opportunity; keeping growth profitable through different sporting calendars and tax regimes will establish its durability.
Codere Online’s figures also need to be kept separate from those of the wider Codere Group, whose physical gambling businesses have a different financial perimeter. A shared brand does not make their results interchangeable.
Mexico grows while the player count falls
Mexico supplied €32.9 million of quarterly revenue, up 37%, even as average monthly active players fell 3% to 85,600. Spain contributed €24.8 million, an increase of 13%.
The Mexican combination is revealing. Revenue grew considerably faster than the active customer base, which means the result cannot be explained simply by attracting more players. Activity within the customer base, product mix, betting outcomes and currency translation all deserve attention when assessing the next quarter.
The figures alone do not establish how much each factor contributed. Nor do they demonstrate a dependence on a handful of high-spending customers. Our view is that the gap makes repeatability the central issue: can Codere maintain stronger revenue generation from its customers once the summer’s exceptional sporting activity has passed?
The company is still investing in its position. In September it announced a multi-year agreement to become the NFL’s Official Betting Partner in Mexico, including sponsorship around the Mexico City game and Super Bowl LXI.
That gives the brand another route to engagement beyond the football World Cup. Its commercial value will ultimately depend on acquiring and retaining customers at a sustainable cost. The announcement itself cannot show that the investment has already paid back.
July had already raised the bar
An unchanged forecast can sound underwhelming after 31% revenue growth. The chronology provides a more useful reading.
Codere Online raised its full-year outlook on 30 July, after reporting second-quarter revenue of €64.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of €5.8 million. The World Cup was already supporting activity then. November’s decision therefore preserves a forecast that had been upgraded during the summer.
Arildsson said the third quarter benefited from the tournament’s final stages in July and favourable exchange rates. He also pointed to a strong comparison period in the final quarter of 2025.
Those are three different influences. A tournament concentrates demand into a particular period. Exchange rates affect the euro value of overseas activity. A stronger prior-year quarter makes the next percentage increase harder to achieve.
Together they explain why carrying the latest growth rate straight into a forecast would be unreliable. Revenue was also below the second quarter’s €64.4 million, despite its substantial annual increase. Sequential and annual comparisons are answering different questions.
The retained guidance consequently looks defensible. It still leaves management responsible for delivering the higher expectations it set in July.
A new label that matters when taxes change
This quarter Codere Online replaced the name Net Gaming Revenue with Gaming Win, leaving the historical amounts unchanged.
In the company’s definition, Gaming Win deducts prizes and promotional credits from stakes on settled wagers, before gaming taxes, VAT, other levies and further costs or adjustments. It is an operating metric, rather than IFRS revenue.
The distinction is particularly relevant to a business spread across different tax systems. Strong customer activity can support Gaming Win while a change in fiscal treatment alters the amount ultimately recognised as revenue or retained as earnings.
The €255–265 million outlook therefore concerns Gaming Win. Reading it as a revenue forecast would misstate what management has promised. Renaming the measure also does not, by itself, improve the underlying economics.
Spain and Colombia bring different pressures
According to iGaming Business’s report of the earnings call, Sher identified Spanish customer identification and deposit requirements as a source of near-term friction. Management expected some disruption while arguing that the financial effect should be manageable.
That remains an expectation to test. The requirements discussed on the call came after the September quarter-end, so the latest results do not demonstrate how customers will behave through the transition.
Colombia presents a more direct question about investment. Sher addressed the prospect of a return of 19% VAT on online gambling deposits, saying Codere Online intended to remain in the market if it happened, while reducing investment and seeking to operate around cash-flow break-even.
The tax discussion concerns a proposal, rather than a confirmed new charge already applied to these quarterly results.
The proposed response has a clear strategic logic: preserve the licence and the ability to expand again while limiting spending under less attractive conditions. Maintaining a presence would still carry costs and execution demands. Shareholders should judge that approach by whether the company contains those costs while protecting a useful business.
The profit headline needs its full label
The 45% increase relates specifically to adjusted EBITDA. The company’s reconciliation shows EBITDA before those additional adjustments at €2.9 million, compared with €3.2 million a year earlier. Employee long-term incentive plan expenses account for an important part of the adjustment in the latest quarter.
Adjusted earnings can help assess trading performance, but this difference deserves attention. The adjustment concerns a real element of employee remuneration, and adjusted EBITDA should not be described as cash flow or treated as a complete account of profitability.
Codere Online reported €65.6 million in total cash and no financial debt at the end of September. That gives it room to manage investment and disruption, although it does not remove the need to earn an adequate return on that spending.
In our view, the strongest part of this update is the opportunity to demonstrate disciplined growth after years spent building the business. The next evidence should come from Mexican customer activity beyond the World Cup, the effect of Spain’s transition and the investment response to any Colombian tax change.
Delivering the July forecast through those pressures would say more about Codere Online’s progress than another quarter of eye-catching growth alone.