Genius Sports Share Price, Chart and Stock Outlook (GENI)

GENI share price and historical chart

View Genius Sports Share Price & Chart. The Markets page displays the NYSE:GENI instrument in US dollars through TradingView. Use the chart controls to compare available periods, and check the provider's timestamp and delay notice before interpreting a price.

Readers should distinguish intraday movement from longer-term adjusted historical prices. Corporate actions and the provider's approach to price adjustments can affect the apparent performance of a multi-year series. UK readers should also remember that the share trades in USD: a sterling-based investor's return additionally changes with the GBP/USD exchange rate.

What actually moves GENI stock?

The Genius Sports stock price responds to more than the latest quarterly sales number. Markets weigh the durability and profitability of sports-data rights, the value of acquisitions, spending needed to fulfil contracts, financing conditions and the number of shares over which future value is divided.

Four questions provide a more useful framework than an isolated chart pattern:

1. Are revenue and margins improving together? New contracts and acquired sales can lift reported turnover while implementation, rights or integration costs offset some of the benefit.
2. Is reported growth turning into cash? Adjusted EBITDA is useful for management's operating narrative, but it is not the same as cash available after investments and financing obligations.
3. How much of future value belongs to lenders or other claims? Debt and contingent acquisition payments matter before investors estimate the value of ordinary equity.
4. Will the share count grow? Stock consideration, warrants and other potential issuances can reduce each existing share's participation in future earnings or cash flow.

Commercial exclusivity can be valuable, but it has contract dates, product boundaries and renewal costs. The Genius Sports rights and partnerships analysis examines those limits. The business risks and opportunities assessment considers the larger competitive picture.

Latest earnings: strong quarter, more complicated nine months

Genius reported unaudited results for the three and nine months ended 30 September 2026 on 5 November 2026. The contrast between the latest quarter and the year to date helps explain why two investors can read the same release differently.

Source: Genius Sports, Q3 2026 earnings release, 5 November 2026. Values in parentheses indicate losses or cash outflows. Figures are rounded to three decimal places in millions.

The quarter produced positive operating profit and free cash flow. Across nine months, however, the business still reported a GAAP operating loss, a net loss and negative free cash flow. It would therefore be misleading to present a single good quarter as proof that the full-year cash-generation issue has disappeared.

The difference between GAAP results and adjusted EBITDA also matters. Adjusted EBITDA excludes specified items and is a management-defined non-GAAP performance measure; it is not a substitute for net income or cash flow. Investors should read its reconciliation and ask which adjustments recur. The full accounting discussion belongs in our Genius Sports financial results and debt analysis.

Management's guidance for the full 2026 financial year, announced alongside those results, was revenue of $1.015 to 1.035 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $287 to 297 million and approximately $260 million of year-end cash. These are forward-looking management expectations, not completed full-year results. Their value as a price catalyst depends on delivery and on the quality of the underlying cash conversion.

Debt and cash: the bridge from business value to equity

At 30 September 2026, Genius reported $206.531 million in cash, $41.250 million of current debt and $746.100 million of long-term debt, excluding its current portion. Those are balance-sheet amounts at a dated reporting point, not live market values.

The broad arithmetic is instructive: a business can increase its enterprise value while the value attributable to ordinary shareholders rises by less, if borrowing, acquisition liabilities or additional share claims absorb part of that improvement. Conversely, sustained free cash flow used to reduce debt could improve the position of ordinary shareholders without an equivalent increase in revenue.

It would be premature to calculate a precise current price-to-sales or enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple here. That exercise needs a synchronised market quotation, consistent outstanding and fully diluted share definitions, relevant debt adjustments and a carefully selected earnings period. Combining today's assumed stock price with an old share count, or annualising one unusually strong quarter, produces false precision.

Dilution: issued shares, outstanding shares and future claims

Share-count definitions are central to assessing GENI stock. The company's 30 September 2026 reporting distinguishes shares issued from shares actually outstanding:

Source: Genius Sports interim financial reporting for the period ended 30 September 2026. Issued shares less treasury shares reconcile to shares outstanding.

These categories should not be casually mixed with the separately disclosed 10 million Class B shares, which have a different rights structure and no ordinary economic participation. Nor should outstanding shares be treated as the same thing as a fully diluted share count.

Three distinct mechanisms deserve attention.

1. Legend acquisition shares already issued. Genius completed its Legend acquisition on 30 April 2026. The closing terms specified $800 million in cash before contractual adjustments and 10,088,781 ordinary shares issued at closing. The later Q3 acquisition accounts recorded $607.4 million of cash purchase consideration and $44.0 million of equity consideration, alongside a working-capital adjustment and contingent consideration; a $137.7 million shareholder-loan settlement was accounted for separately. Those closing shares form part of the issued capital once issued; they are not a hypothetical future dilution event. Acquisition-driven expansion can improve the combined company's growth opportunity, but shareholders must judge whether the assets acquired justify their total cost.

2. Legend's contingent consideration. The agreement also provided for up to $300 million in earn-out consideration, dependent on contractual conditions, potentially payable in cash or shares. The maximum is neither an amount already paid nor an automatic additional issue of shares. The eventual effect depends on milestones, settlement terms and the company's choices or obligations at the relevant time. Cash settlement and share settlement affect owners differently.

3. NFL warrants. The company's filings describe a programme covering 19.5 million ordinary-share warrants, with a nominal $0.01 exercise price; 14.5 million had vested according to the relevant 2026 disclosure, while the remaining five million were scheduled to vest in 2028 subject to the arrangements. Vesting, exercise and actual issuance are separate events. A warrant is a potential equity claim, not proof that all underlying shares are already included in outstanding ordinary shares. Subsequent exercises or changes must be checked against the latest filing before any current fully diluted calculation.

The correct analytical chain is therefore:

Operating value → debt and other claims → value attributable to ordinary equity → shares outstanding or an explicitly defined diluted denominator → value per share.

A denominator which includes unvested or contingent instruments may help model a scenario, but it must be labelled. A denominator which ignores reasonably possible future issuance may overstate potential gains per share. For the ownership and warrant context, see Genius Sports shareholders and NFL warrants.

Analyst targets versus an independent GENI stock outlook

A GENI stock forecast is not a reported fact. A broker's target usually estimates where a share might trade over a stated horizon, often 12 months, based on assumptions about future performance and valuation. Different services can display different consensus averages because they include different analysts, update on different dates or treat stale targets differently.

We do not present an average GENI price target, high/low range or buy/hold/sell tally without a named data provider, timestamp, analyst sample and common horizon. Nor do we turn a historical quoted target into a current prediction. The relevant question is what would have to change in business performance, cash generation and equity claims for a higher or lower valuation to be justified.

Our scenarios below are conditional business assessments, not numerical share-price predictions or personal recommendations.

None of these cases has an implied probability or a defensible price objective on the evidence currently available. The market could also value the same fundamentals differently as interest rates, risk appetite and comparable technology-company valuations change.

The acquisition question investors should keep asking

Legend expands Genius's capabilities and addressable markets, but combining businesses changes the interpretation of growth. Reported revenue growth after consolidation is not automatically organic demand growth in the legacy company. Equally, adjusted EBITDA improvement is not sufficient evidence that the consideration paid, new debt and potential share claims have created value per GENI share.

The test is whether the combined business generates enough incremental cash and durable economic returns to justify the capital committed. That evidence may take several reporting periods to emerge. Strong initial sales or optimistic guidance can be encouraging, but they are not a substitute for realised cash flow.

Five triggers for reassessing the GENI investment case

Rather than attach an unsupported price to an uncertain future, we would revisit the thesis when one of these observable conditions changes:

1. Guidance delivery. Full-year 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA and cash outcomes materially exceed or fall short of the ranges management set in November. Check reported results, not merely a revised headline.
2. Cash conversion. Positive free cash flow persists beyond a strong quarter and begins to offset the nine-month cash outflow. Examine acquisitions, working capital and investment needs alongside the headline measure.
3. Financing requirements. Debt balances and servicing costs change meaningfully, or management provides clearer information about how cash is allocated between investment, repayments and obligations.
4. Share-count changes. New filings disclose actual warrant exercise, share-based acquisition settlement, treasury movements or other issuance. Recalculate per-share measures using the appropriate dated denominator.
5. Rights and customer economics. New or renewed league agreements improve the commercial runway, or higher rights costs, concentration or regulatory constraints weaken expected returns.

These tests help distinguish a genuinely strengthening equity case from one supported mainly by a rising share-price line. They also allow the interpretation to change when new evidence contradicts earlier expectations.

Our assessment

Genius Sports has valuable relationships and an increasingly broad data, video and advertising proposition. Its third quarter of 2026 demonstrated improved profitability and positive free cash flow. But the nine-month losses and cash outflows, substantial debt, acquisition commitments and possible future dilution prevent a straightforward conclusion that business growth will flow through proportionately to existing holders of GENI.

For the British reader, the most informative pairing is a properly timestamped NYSE chart with subsequent SEC filings and cash-flow results. The first shows what investors are paying; the second helps test what they are buying. Neither a single analyst target nor a quarterly adjusted-EBITDA headline closes the gap between the two.

Editorial position as at 8 November 2026: the medium-term opportunity is credible but conditional. We would look first for sustained cash generation, disciplined integration and clarity on the diluted share base before treating stronger operating forecasts as stronger value per share. This is independent analysis, not a trading instruction.

Documentary basis: Genius Sports Q3 and nine-month 2026 earnings release (5 November 2026); company interim financial statements for the period ended 30 September 2026; SEC filings concerning the Legend acquisition, issued share consideration and NFL warrants.